Bill Walsh used to say, "You coach offense, but you draft defense."
He was exactly right.
Walsh was an innovator on the offensive side of the ball, introducing the West Coast offense, scripting plays to start a game (known as the "first 15"), but he was also one of the first coaches to find, scout, and draft his own players.
Incredibly, he won his first Super Bowl (Super Bowl XVI) with the 49ers with three rookies in his defensive secondary - Ronnie Lott, Eric Wright, and Carlton Williamson. That same team had a league-best 13-3 record as well. Montana was only 25 years old at the time. They also couldn't run. The 49ers used three RBs that year, neither of which averaged more than 3.6 ypc and only scored 1 td as a group.
But back to Walsh's drafting philosophy. Excluding last year's first round draft class (numbers based on an ESPN Page 2 study):
He was exactly right.
Walsh was an innovator on the offensive side of the ball, introducing the West Coast offense, scripting plays to start a game (known as the "first 15"), but he was also one of the first coaches to find, scout, and draft his own players.
Incredibly, he won his first Super Bowl (Super Bowl XVI) with the 49ers with three rookies in his defensive secondary - Ronnie Lott, Eric Wright, and Carlton Williamson. That same team had a league-best 13-3 record as well. Montana was only 25 years old at the time. They also couldn't run. The 49ers used three RBs that year, neither of which averaged more than 3.6 ypc and only scored 1 td as a group.
But back to Walsh's drafting philosophy. Excluding last year's first round draft class (numbers based on an ESPN Page 2 study):
Players Picked in the First Round
OL - 70
DE - 55
CB - 52
WR - 51
LB - 48
DT - 42
RB -41
QB -30
S -19
More interestingly though...
First Round Bust Percentages
QB - 53%
RB - 49%
WR - 45%
DT - 33%
OL - 31%
DE - 31%
CB - 29%
LB - 16%
S - 11%
And finally...
First Round Pro Bowl Percentages
S - 53%
DT - 40%
LB - 39%
RB - 36%
DE - 33%
QB - 33%
WR - 31%
OL - 26%
CB - 23%
So on April 26th, you should be hoping that your team passes on Matt Ryan and Brian Brohm (be especially wary of Ryan), Darren McFadden, and DeSean Jackson. Based on the numbers, you should be pulling for Sedrick Ellis, Keith Rivers, Kenny Phillips, and Jake/Chris Long. If you're going to pay a 20 year old kid an exorbitant amount of money, you might as well make a safe investment and make those dollars count. To beat a dead horse some more, the Texans were fiscal geniuses for passing on Reggie Bust and taking Mario Williams. This past year, barely took the field, Calvin Johnson was underachieving, Ted Ginn Jr. was average, Brady Quinn lost the preseason battle to Anderson, Meacham came into camp weighing around 500 lbs and then got hurt, and Buster Davis (WR) was worthless. On offense, Anthony Gonzalez played well, so did Greg Olsen. Dwayne Bowe was great. Of course Purple Jesus and Marshawn Lynch had solid, though injury slowed rookie campaigns.
The "bust proof" side of the draft fared better. Joe Thomas solidified the left side of Cleveland's line, Levi Brown played well, LaRon Landry became an impact player towards the end of the season, Amobi Okoye was a force, Patrick Willis won Defensive Rookie of the Year, Adam Carriker has NFL talent, Revis had several good games, Aaron Ross can play ball, Michael Griffin helped the Titans, Reggie Nelson started on the Jags defense, and Jon Beason was a monster in Charlotte.
This makes me wonder about all the money teams threw at free agents - in other words, players whose teams deemed them expendable or didn't think they were worth the money. 26 offensive players now find themselves in a new city, compared to 27 defensive players now on a new team. In 2008, expect to see teams that spent money on defense and on the offensive line to be the most improved.
I can't really see Bernard Berrian doing too much in Minnesota, Michael Turner will be tested in Atlanta, DJ Hackett will probably get hurt again, Donte' Stallworth = overrated, Ernest Wilford = also underrated, Bryant Johnson is a good #3 (why is San Fran looking to another backup to start?), Javon Walker's knees are about as solid as Philip Rivers', Isaac Bruce and Warrick Dunn are walking corpses, and the list goes on.
The Patriots found a quick fix for their offense in free agency last year, but I don't see any teams whose offensive acquisitions will have a similar impact.
I commend Ted Thompson (Packers GM and George Young National Football League executive of the year winner) for keeping a tight budget in free agency. And I've grown to like his draft philosophy of taking the best player available, regardless of position or team need. The draft, he says, is a means of improving for the future. Yes sir. As long as you don't draft like the Bears, the Lions, the Eagles, and the 49ers - simply, as long as you draft intelligently.
Bill Walsh was a genius. RIP.
Click here for a list of the biggest Heisman flops. See the trend?
Click here for the 100 worst draft picks ever (all sports).
The "bust proof" side of the draft fared better. Joe Thomas solidified the left side of Cleveland's line, Levi Brown played well, LaRon Landry became an impact player towards the end of the season, Amobi Okoye was a force, Patrick Willis won Defensive Rookie of the Year, Adam Carriker has NFL talent, Revis had several good games, Aaron Ross can play ball, Michael Griffin helped the Titans, Reggie Nelson started on the Jags defense, and Jon Beason was a monster in Charlotte.
This makes me wonder about all the money teams threw at free agents - in other words, players whose teams deemed them expendable or didn't think they were worth the money. 26 offensive players now find themselves in a new city, compared to 27 defensive players now on a new team. In 2008, expect to see teams that spent money on defense and on the offensive line to be the most improved.
I can't really see Bernard Berrian doing too much in Minnesota, Michael Turner will be tested in Atlanta, DJ Hackett will probably get hurt again, Donte' Stallworth = overrated, Ernest Wilford = also underrated, Bryant Johnson is a good #3 (why is San Fran looking to another backup to start?), Javon Walker's knees are about as solid as Philip Rivers', Isaac Bruce and Warrick Dunn are walking corpses, and the list goes on.
The Patriots found a quick fix for their offense in free agency last year, but I don't see any teams whose offensive acquisitions will have a similar impact.
I commend Ted Thompson (Packers GM and George Young National Football League executive of the year winner) for keeping a tight budget in free agency. And I've grown to like his draft philosophy of taking the best player available, regardless of position or team need. The draft, he says, is a means of improving for the future. Yes sir. As long as you don't draft like the Bears, the Lions, the Eagles, and the 49ers - simply, as long as you draft intelligently.
Bill Walsh was a genius. RIP.
Click here for a list of the biggest Heisman flops. See the trend?
Click here for the 100 worst draft picks ever (all sports).
1 comment:
FREDDIE MITCHELL IS A SAINT...no regrets
Post a Comment